ABSTRACT
The objective is to evaluate the impact of the earlier availability of COVID-19 vaccinations to children and boosters to adults in the face of the Delta and Omicron variants. We employed an agent-based stochastic network simulation model with a modified SEIR compartment model populated with demographic and census data for North Carolina. We found that earlier availability of childhood vaccines and earlier availability of adult boosters could have reduced the peak hospitalizations of the Delta wave by 10% and the Omicron wave by 42%, and could have reduced cumulative deaths by 9% by July 2022. When studied separately, we found that earlier childhood vaccinations reduce cumulative deaths by 2,611 more than earlier adult boosters. Therefore, the results of our simulation model suggest that the timing of childhood vaccination and booster efforts could have resulted in a reduced disease burden and that prioritizing childhood vaccinations would most effectively reduce disease spread. © 2022 IEEE.
ABSTRACT
The objective is to evaluate the widespread adoption of masks on community transmission of SARS-CoV2. We employed an agent-based stochastic network simulation model and a variant of a SEIR disease model with one million agents in census tracts representing a population of 10.5 million. We evaluated scenarios with 25% to 90% mask-related reduction in viral transmission (mask efficacy). An individual wears a mask with a discrete probability values in [0-100%] (mask adherence). A mask order was initiated 3.5 months after the first confirmed case, with temporary state-wide distancing and voluntary quarantining of households. If 50% of the population wears masks that are 50% effective, this decreases the cumulative infection attack rate (CAR) by 27%, the peak prevalence by 54%, and the population mortality by 29%. If 90% wear masks that are 50% effective, this decreases the CAR by 38%, the peak prevalence by 75%, and the population mortality by 55%. © 2021 IEEE.